FC Twente Enschede — FC Thun: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
81.6%
Home win
FC Twente Enschede
X
10.6%
Draw
W2
7.7%
Away win
FC Thun
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X92.3%
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
Totals 2.5
Over73.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.3% |
| 12 | 89.4% | |
| X2 | 18.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.5% / 1.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.9% / 26.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.2% / 65.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
Goal distribution model
FC Twente Enschede × FC Thun
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.5%
0:1
2.4%
0:2
0.7%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.0%
1:1
4.7%
1:2
2.2%
1:3
0.6%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
9.7%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
3.3%
2:3
0.9%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.8%
3:1
8.1%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
7.4%
4:1
6.1%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
4.5%
5:1
3.7%
5:2
1.5%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
3:09.8%
2:09.7%
3:18.1%
2:18.0%
4:07.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 09.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Groningen 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:1
FC Thun
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 away Vikingur Reykjavik 2:3
- 06.08.2026 home Vikingur Reykjavik 3:0
- 28.07.2026 away GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2:3
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 7.00 → now 7.50 |
| W2 | was 9.00 → now 10.00 |
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