SC Freiburg — Bayern Munich: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 34.4% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 83.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
SC Freiburg
3rd place · 13 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Leverkusen 1:2
- 11.10.2026 home Schalke 04 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home M'gladbach 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:0
Bayern Munich
2nd place · 14 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home RB Leipzig 6:1
- 10.10.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
This season: SC Freiburg at home vs Bayern Munich away
| Metric | SC Freiburg · at home | Bayern Munich · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 3.24 |
| xG against per match | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.33 | 9.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 SC Freiburg 2:3 Bayern Munich
- 22.11.2025 Bayern Munich 6:2 SC Freiburg
- 25.01.2025 SC Freiburg 1:2 Bayern Munich
- 01.09.2024 Bayern Munich 2:0 SC Freiburg
- 01.03.2024 SC Freiburg 2:2 Bayern Munich
- 08.10.2023 Bayern Munich 3:0 SC Freiburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.50 → now 5.25 |
| X | was 5.25 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
SC Freiburg have made a strong start to the Bundesliga season, sitting third with 13 points from six matches. Their home form is particularly impressive, with three wins from three games, 11 goals scored and only two conceded. They also create clearly more chances than they allow at home, suggesting Bayern Munich will face a meaningful challenge despite their status as the stronger side. Freiburg’s recent record of three wins, one draw and one loss further underlines their competitive form.
Bayern Munich arrive in even stronger overall shape, leading the table with 14 points and remaining unbeaten across their last five matches. They have scored 17 goals and conceded only four in that run, demonstrating a combination of attacking output and defensive control. Their away record is less dominant, with one win and two draws from three matches, but their ability to create more chances than they concede remains a significant advantage. The recent head-to-head record also favours Bayern Munich, who have won five of the last six meetings, including a 3-2 victory over SC Freiburg in 2026. With both teams showing attacking potential, this could be an open contest, but Bayern Munich hold a moderate overall edge.
What matters before kick-off
Vincent Kompany absent from touchline
Bayern Munich head coach Vincent Kompany will miss the match against Freiburg following medical care and hospitalization. Assistant coach Aaron Danks will take charge of the team from the touchline.
Bayern Munich injury update
Bayern captain Manuel Neuer will miss the trip to Freiburg due to persistent foot tendonitis. The Bavarians are also without Jamal Musiala and Luis Díaz due to muscle injuries.
Freiburg recent results
Julian Schuster's Freiburg side enter the clash following consecutive defeats, losing 2-1 to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and 3-0 away to Monaco in the Conference League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.