SC Corinthians SP — Santos FC SP: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.4% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
SC Corinthians SP
10th place · 32 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:2
- 09.08.2026 away Bragantino 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away Bahia 1:1
Santos FC SP
14th place · 26 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Vasco 3:0
- 09.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:2
- 25.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:2
- 16.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:2
This season: SC Corinthians SP at home vs Santos FC SP away
| Metric | SC Corinthians SP · at home | Santos FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–4 | 1–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.83 | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Santos FC SP 1:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 16.10.2025 Santos FC SP 3:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 18.05.2025 SC Corinthians SP 1:0 Santos FC SP
- 29.10.2023 SC Corinthians SP 1:1 Santos FC SP
- 22.06.2023 Santos FC SP 0:2 SC Corinthians SP
- 22.10.2022 Santos FC SP 0:1 SC Corinthians SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP hold a slight edge over Santos FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points toward a contest in which the home side is more likely to avoid defeat, with the hosts showing the stronger overall position while a draw remains a realistic outcome. That makes the balance favor SC Corinthians SP without suggesting a one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is moderate, indicating a game that could develop without an unusually high number of goals. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the match may be decided by small differences in efficiency and defensive concentration. Possible score patterns include a level result or a narrow home victory, with SC Corinthians SP marginally better placed to control the key phases. Santos FC SP should still have enough potential to keep the contest competitive, particularly if they remain organised when possession changes.
What matters before kick-off
Santos squad updates
Santos midfielder João Schmidt is suspended for the derby due to yellow card accumulation, while Neymar returned to the squad after missing their midweek fixture.
Santos recent result
In midweek action, Santos suffered a 3-0 defeat to Palmeiras in the first leg of the Copa do Brasil quarterfinals.
Previous 2026 encounters
Both previous meetings between Corinthians and Santos in 2026 ended in 1-1 draws, played in the Campeonato Paulista and Serie A.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.