CR Flamengo RJ — Botafogo FR RJ: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.8% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
2nd place · 45 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Mirassol 5:1
- 09.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:0
- 29.07.2026 away Internacional 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:1
Botafogo FR RJ
11th place · 30 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 2:3
- 16.08.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 09.08.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home Vitoria 0:0
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Botafogo FR RJ away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | Botafogo FR RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–1 | 4–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.90 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Botafogo FR RJ 0:3 CR Flamengo RJ
- 15.10.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 0:3 CR Flamengo RJ
- 18.05.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 0:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 18.08.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 4:1 CR Flamengo RJ
- 28.04.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 0:2 Botafogo FR RJ
- 03.09.2023 Botafogo FR RJ 1:2 CR Flamengo RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with high confidence in the home outcome. The assessment points to an open, high-scoring contest, although the balance between both teams finding the net remains uncertain. That combination suggests the hosts’ advantage is based primarily on their overall strength rather than on an expectation of a specific match pattern.
Botafogo FR RJ therefore face a demanding assignment away from home, while CR Flamengo RJ will look to impose their superiority from the outset. The main analytical signal favours a home win, but the scoring outlook leaves room for different ways the match could develop. A controlled victory for CR Flamengo RJ is one possible shape, while a more open game would also fit the available indicators. The fixture should be approached with the hosts as the stronger team, without treating the exact scoreline or both-teams-to-score scenario as settled.
What matters before kick-off
Flamengo squad news
Bruno Henrique misses the derby due to a suspension after receiving his third yellow card. Meanwhile, Léo Pereira returns to the team after being rested against Cruzeiro.
400th historical derby meeting
The Round 25 Serie A fixture at the Maracanã marks the 400th all-time match between Flamengo and Botafogo. Flamengo are undefeated against their rivals in their last six encounters, recording five wins and one draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.