CA Paranaense PR — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 44 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 3:2
- 15.08.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 09.08.2026 away Santos 2:0
- 30.07.2026 away Corinthians 0:0
- 25.07.2026 home Internacional 2:0
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 41 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Palmeiras 3:2
- 09.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 30.07.2026 home Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away Gremio 1:1
This season: CA Paranaense PR at home vs Fluminense FC RJ away
| Metric | CA Paranaense PR · at home | Fluminense FC RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–1 | 2–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.18 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.58 | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 73% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Fluminense FC RJ 3:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 01.12.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 22.10.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 27.08.2023 CA Paranaense PR 2:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 22.04.2023 Fluminense FC RJ 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 03.09.2022 CA Paranaense PR 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Paranaense PR have a slight edge over Fluminense FC RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the assessment points more toward a competitive contest than a one-sided match. The hosts appear better positioned in the overall outcome signal, but the margin between the teams remains narrow enough for a draw to stay a realistic possibility. The 1X indication supports CA Paranaense PR avoiding defeat, rather than pointing to a definitive home win.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with neither a particularly open nor an extremely defensive script standing out. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the match could develop through chances at both ends or remain relatively contained. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, which underline the limited separation between the sides and suggest that small details may determine the final outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Fluminense Squad Availability
Fluminense midfielder Hércules is unavailable for the clash due to suspension after accumulating three yellow cards, while Samuel Xavier and Alisson remain sidelined with injuries.
Recent League Matches
Athletico Paranaense entered the match on the back of a 3-2 away victory against Botafogo in Rio de Janeiro, while Fluminense also secured a win in their previous fixture by defeating Remo 2-1.
Top-Four Standings Contest
This round 25 matchup pits third-place Athletico Paranaense, sitting on 44 points, against fourth-place Fluminense, who sit just three points behind with 41 points in the Serie A standings.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.