Mirassol FC SP — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.0% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 72.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Mirassol FC SP
17th place · 24 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Santos 1:1
- 16.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:5
- 09.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Vasco 1:1
SE Palmeiras SP
1st place · 51 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Vasco 4:1
- 15.08.2026 away Fluminense 2:3
- 09.08.2026 home Internacional 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Vitoria 4:0
- 26.07.2026 home Atletico-MG 1:2
This season: Mirassol FC SP at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | Mirassol FC SP · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–4 | 7–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 15.03.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 Mirassol FC SP
- 09.11.2025 Mirassol FC SP 2:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 16.07.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 1:1 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP host SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A, with the available indicators pointing to a slight edge for the visitors. The overall signal supports an away-side advantage without suggesting a one-sided contest, so Mirassol FC SP should remain competitive while SE Palmeiras SP appear better placed to control key phases of the match.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the main scenarios ranging from a balanced 1:1 draw to narrow SE Palmeiras SP wins such as 0:1 or 1:2. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, making that aspect of the match a coin flip rather than a clear trend. The X2 signal also favours SE Palmeiras SP avoiding defeat, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability for both teams
Palmeiras head into the match without injured players Piquerez, Jhon Arias, Paulinho, Jefté, and Ramón Sosa. Mirassol will be missing the suspended Wallisson, while Edson Carioca, José Aldo, and Negueba are sidelined with injuries.
Standings and recent form
League leaders Palmeiras have accumulated 51 points from 24 matches, coming off a 4-1 Série A win over Vasco da Gama and a 3-0 Copa do Brasil victory over Santos. Mirassol remain in the relegation zone with 24 points following a 1-1 draw against Santos in their previous league fixture.
Palmeiras' overall head-to-head advantage
Palmeiras hold an overall advantage in their head-to-head history with Mirassol, winning 11 of their 19 historical meetings, including a 1-0 victory in the first half of the 2026 Brasileirão season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.