CR Vasco da Gama RJ — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.2% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
19th place · 22 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
- 16.08.2026 home Santos 0:3
- 09.08.2026 away Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 16.07.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
Cruzeiro EC MG
5th place · 39 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 09.08.2026 home Mirassol 3:1
- 31.07.2026 away Coritiba 1:0
- 26.07.2026 home Botafogo RJ 0:1
This season: CR Vasco da Gama RJ at home vs Cruzeiro EC MG away
| Metric | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · at home | Cruzeiro EC MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–5 | 5–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 1.18 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.42 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Cruzeiro EC MG 3:3 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 27.09.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 27.04.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 29.09.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 16.06.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 22.11.2023 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:2 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Vasco da Gama RJ have a slight edge over Cruzeiro EC MG in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, with the overall assessment pointing toward the home side without suggesting a decisive gap. The confidence in that lean is high, while the projected scoring environment is medium-scoring. That combination indicates a match in which the hosts may have the stronger overall position, but Cruzeiro EC MG should remain competitive across the game.
The expectation for both teams to score is finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible score patterns point to a narrow contest, including a level outcome or a one-goal home victory. The broader signal favours CR Vasco da Gama RJ avoiding defeat, with the draw also carrying meaningful weight. Overall, this looks like a controlled but competitive fixture rather than one likely to be decided by a wide margin.
What matters before kick-off
Vasco da Gama defender Robert Renan suspended
Vasco da Gama defender Robert Renan will miss the match against Cruzeiro due to an automatic suspension.
Fabrício Bruno suspended for Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro centre-back Fabrício Bruno is suspended and unavailable for the fixture against Vasco da Gama.
Midweek Copa do Brasil fixtures for both sides
Prior to this league clash, Vasco da Gama defeated Vitória 1-0 in the Copa do Brasil, while Cruzeiro drew 1-1 against Atlético Mineiro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.