Atletico Mineiro MG — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.0% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
9th place · 33 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Internacional 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gremio 3:0
- 08.08.2026 away Remo 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away Palmeiras 2:1
- 21.07.2026 home Bahia 1:1
EC Vitoria BA
12th place · 29 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Bahia 0:2
- 16.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:0
- 09.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.07.2026 home Palmeiras 0:4
- 26.07.2026 away Remo 0:2
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs EC Vitoria BA away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | EC Vitoria BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–4–1 | 0–4–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.70 | 0.58 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.30 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 EC Vitoria BA 2:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 31.08.2025 EC Vitoria BA 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 14.04.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 05.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 20.06.2024 EC Vitoria BA 4:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 26.08.2018 EC Vitoria BA 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG have a slight edge over EC Vitoria BA in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, with the home side holding the stronger overall position. That advantage does not suggest a one-sided contest, however, and EC Vitoria BA remain capable of making the game competitive, particularly if they keep the match balanced through the opening stages.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in different ways depending on which side controls the tempo. A narrow home victory appears plausible, with 1:0 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines, while 1:1 also reflects the uncertainty around the attacking balance. The broader signal favours Atletico Mineiro MG avoiding defeat, but the profile points more toward a controlled and relatively close encounter than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Atlético Mineiro Squad News
Atlético Mineiro enter matchday 25 of the Brasileirão with Léo Duarte, Lyanco, Everson, and Igor Gomes listed on the injury report.
Atlético Mineiro's Unbeaten Streak
Atlético Mineiro are on a 12-match unbeaten streak in all competitions ahead of hosting EC Vitória.
EC Vitória Team News
EC Vitória defender Cacá is available after obtaining a suspensive effect on his ban, while midfielder Gabriel Baralhas remains sidelined through injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.