Sao Paulo FC SP — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.9% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
13th place · 27 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Coritiba 1:1
- 08.08.2026 away Gremio 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:2
Red Bull Bragantino SP
7th place · 35 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 15.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Corinthians 0:2
- 26.07.2026 home Coritiba 0:0
- 18.07.2026 away Fluminense 1:1
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs Red Bull Bragantino SP away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | Red Bull Bragantino SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–2 | 4–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.90 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 45% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 09.11.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 0:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 17.07.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 20.11.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 07.07.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 08.11.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sao Paulo FC SP and Red Bull Bragantino SP appear evenly matched ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, so the contest is likely to be shaped by small tactical details and the teams’ ability to manage key moments. The moderate confidence in this reading reflects the narrow gap between the two sides rather than a strong directional signal.
The scoring outlook is medium, pointing towards a game with opportunities without suggesting an especially open contest. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, which reinforces the uncertainty around how the match may develop. A draw is a credible scenario, while the home side has a slight positional edge through the broader 1X signal. Sao Paulo FC SP may therefore seek to control the match carefully, while Red Bull Bragantino SP can remain competitive by keeping the structure compact and making the most of its attacking phases.
What matters before kick-off
Previous matchday Serie A results
Ahead of their matchday 25 fixture in the Brasileirão, São Paulo suffered a 1-0 away loss to Chapecoense, while Red Bull Bragantino secured a 1-0 home win over Grêmio.
Head-to-head record in 2026
São Paulo defeated Red Bull Bragantino 2-1 in both of their previous meetings in 2026 — in the Campeonato Paulista quarterfinals and the first half of the Serie A season.
São Paulo player availability
São Paulo will be without Lucas Moura and Bobadilla for the match due to injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.