Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.1% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
16th place · 25 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Bragantino 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:3
- 08.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 18.07.2026 away Mirassol 1:2
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 14 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Bahia 3:3
- 09.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 23.07.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:4
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–2 | 0–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.64 | 0.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.18 | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.03.2026 Chapecoense SC 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 20.11.2021 Chapecoense SC 1:3 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 10.08.2021 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:1 Chapecoense SC
- 10.11.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 06.08.2019 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 3:3 Chapecoense SC
- 18.11.2018 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have the clearer overall position heading into this Brasileiro Serie A fixture, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. Chapecoense SC will need to remain organised and make the most of their opportunities, particularly if the hosts control possession and establish pressure in the attacking areas.
The match profile points towards a medium-scoring contest. There is no firm separation on whether both teams will score, so that aspect remains finely balanced rather than presenting a clear pattern. The most plausible game scripts include a controlled home victory, with 2–0 or 1–0 fitting the stronger position of Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS, while 1–1 reflects the possibility that Chapecoense SC can resist effectively and take advantage of a limited number of chances.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
Grêmio right-back Diego Caito is sidelined due to a shoulder injury sustained against Internacional, while midfielder Erick Noriega serves a suspension. For Chapecoense, midfielder Camilo is ruled out due to suspension.
Grêmio schedule congestion
Grêmio enter this league fixture sandwiched between two legs of the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals against rival Internacional. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg, the decider is scheduled just days later.
Chapecoense recent victory
Chapecoense secured a 1-0 win against São Paulo in their previous Serie A match, courtesy of a first-half goal from Bruno Pacheco.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.