SC Corinthians SP — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.3% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with the clearer overall profile, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. Chapecoense SC face a demanding assignment away from home, but the available assessment does not point to an entirely one-sided contest. The central expectation is for SC Corinthians SP to hold the stronger position in the match and to have the better platform for controlling its key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with several plausible paths involving a narrow home victory. A clean-sheet win for SC Corinthians SP is one possible pattern, while a closer game in which Chapecoense SC find the net is also consistent with the assessment. The prospect of both teams scoring is balanced rather than decisive, so the match may hinge on how efficiently the hosts convert their territorial or attacking advantage. Overall, SC Corinthians SP have the edge, but the evidence supports a measured view rather than an emphatic prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Corinthians key missing players
Corinthians head into the round 26 match against Chapecoense missing Hugo Souza, Raniele, and Gabriel Paulista through suspension, while Yuri Alberto and André remain sidelined with injuries.
Chapecoense squad availability
Chapecoense left-back Bruno Pacheco is unavailable due to yellow card accumulation, though midfielder Camilo returns to the squad after serving a suspension.
Corinthians recent league run
Corinthians enter round 26 looking to snap a three-match losing streak in Serie A following defeats against Cruzeiro, Coritiba, and Santos.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.