SC Corinthians SP — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.3% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
SC Corinthians SP
11th place · 32 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Santos 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:2
- 09.08.2026 away Bragantino 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:0
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 14 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Gremio 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Bahia 3:3
- 09.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away Santos 2:2
This season: SC Corinthians SP at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | SC Corinthians SP · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–5 | 0–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.03.2026 Chapecoense SC 0:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 02.11.2021 SC Corinthians SP 1:0 Chapecoense SC
- 09.07.2021 Chapecoense SC 0:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 02.10.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 01.05.2019 SC Corinthians SP 1:0 Chapecoense SC
- 25.11.2018 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with the clearer overall profile, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. Chapecoense SC face a demanding assignment away from home, but the available assessment does not point to an entirely one-sided contest. The central expectation is for SC Corinthians SP to hold the stronger position in the match and to have the better platform for controlling its key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with several plausible paths involving a narrow home victory. A clean-sheet win for SC Corinthians SP is one possible pattern, while a closer game in which Chapecoense SC find the net is also consistent with the assessment. The prospect of both teams scoring is balanced rather than decisive, so the match may hinge on how efficiently the hosts convert their territorial or attacking advantage. Overall, SC Corinthians SP have the edge, but the evidence supports a measured view rather than an emphatic prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Corinthians key missing players
Corinthians head into the round 26 match against Chapecoense missing Hugo Souza, Raniele, and Gabriel Paulista through suspension, while Yuri Alberto and André remain sidelined with injuries.
Chapecoense squad availability
Chapecoense left-back Bruno Pacheco is unavailable due to yellow card accumulation, though midfielder Camilo returns to the squad after serving a suspension.
Corinthians recent league run
Corinthians enter round 26 looking to snap a three-match losing streak in Serie A following defeats against Cruzeiro, Coritiba, and Santos.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.