Botafogo FR RJ — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ host SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A on 6 September 2026. The assessment gives SE Palmeiras SP a slight edge, with high confidence, although the matchup is not presented as one-sided. The stronger expectation is that the visitors avoid defeat, while Botafogo FR RJ remain capable of contributing to the result.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points toward a competitive contest rather than a tightly controlled match, and a draw remains a credible possibility alongside a narrow SE Palmeiras SP victory. The overall balance therefore favours the visitors, but Botafogo FR RJ should not be discounted, particularly in a match where chances are expected at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
League standings context
Palmeiras enter matchday 26 as Serie A leaders with 52 points from 25 matches, while Botafogo sit in 12th place with 30 points.
Player suspensions
Palmeiras will be without Arthur for the match due to a red card suspension.
Palmeiras away record fact
Palmeiras are the only club with a positive overall win-loss record in away matches in the history of the Brazilian Championship.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.