Botafogo FR RJ — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Botafogo FR RJ
12th place · 30 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
- 25.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 2:3
- 16.08.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 09.08.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:0
SE Palmeiras SP
1st place · 52 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Vasco 4:1
- 15.08.2026 away Fluminense 2:3
- 09.08.2026 home Internacional 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Vitoria 4:0
This season: Botafogo FR RJ at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | Botafogo FR RJ · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–3 | 7–4–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.82 | 1.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.55 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 62% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.03.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 2:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 18.08.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 0:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 30.03.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 0:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 27.11.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 1:3 Botafogo FR RJ
- 18.07.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 1:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 02.11.2023 Botafogo FR RJ 3:4 SE Palmeiras SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ host SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A on 6 September 2026. The assessment gives SE Palmeiras SP a slight edge, with high confidence, although the matchup is not presented as one-sided. The stronger expectation is that the visitors avoid defeat, while Botafogo FR RJ remain capable of contributing to the result.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points toward a competitive contest rather than a tightly controlled match, and a draw remains a credible possibility alongside a narrow SE Palmeiras SP victory. The overall balance therefore favours the visitors, but Botafogo FR RJ should not be discounted, particularly in a match where chances are expected at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
League standings context
Palmeiras enter matchday 26 as Serie A leaders with 52 points from 25 matches, while Botafogo sit in 12th place with 30 points.
Player suspensions
Palmeiras will be without Arthur for the match due to a red card suspension.
Palmeiras away record fact
Palmeiras are the only club with a positive overall win-loss record in away matches in the history of the Brazilian Championship.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.