Fluminense FC RJ — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.6% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Fluminense FC RJ
5th place · 42 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 3:3
- 22.08.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Palmeiras 3:2
- 09.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 30.07.2026 home Bahia 0:0
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
18th place · 25 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
- 16.08.2026 home Santos 0:3
- 09.08.2026 away Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
This season: Fluminense FC RJ at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | Fluminense FC RJ · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 9–3–1 | 0–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.08 | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 73% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.03.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 3:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 20.10.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 24.05.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 2:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 11.08.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 20.04.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 2:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 16.09.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 4:2 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ have a slight edge over CR Vasco da Gama RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available outlook points toward a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better positioned but not dominant.
The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, making the match difficult to define through that market alone. The most likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, which suggests a close game where defensive organisation and the effectiveness of each team’s attacking moments could be decisive. Overall, the assessment favours Fluminense FC RJ while keeping the draw as a significant possibility.
What matters before kick-off
Thiago Silva rested for the derby
Fluminense defender Thiago Silva will miss the match against Vasco da Gama as the coaching staff decided to rest him.
Vasco da Gama reached the Copa do Brasil semifinals
Vasco da Gama defeated Vitória 2-0 to advance to the Copa do Brasil semifinals ahead of their league derby with Fluminense.
League standings overview
Fluminense enters the match sitting 4th in Brasileirão with 42 points, while Vasco da Gama is 17th in the relegation zone with 25 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.