Fluminense FC RJ — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.6% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ have a slight edge over CR Vasco da Gama RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available outlook points toward a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better positioned but not dominant.
The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, making the match difficult to define through that market alone. The most likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, which suggests a close game where defensive organisation and the effectiveness of each team’s attacking moments could be decisive. Overall, the assessment favours Fluminense FC RJ while keeping the draw as a significant possibility.
What matters before kick-off
Thiago Silva rested for the derby
Fluminense defender Thiago Silva will miss the match against Vasco da Gama as the coaching staff decided to rest him.
Vasco da Gama reached the Copa do Brasil semifinals
Vasco da Gama defeated Vitória 2-0 to advance to the Copa do Brasil semifinals ahead of their league derby with Fluminense.
League standings overview
Fluminense enters the match sitting 4th in Brasileirão with 42 points, while Vasco da Gama is 17th in the relegation zone with 25 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.