Sao Paulo FC SP — Atletico Mineiro MG: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.8% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
11th place · 30 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Coritiba 1:1
- 08.08.2026 away Gremio 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:1
Atletico Mineiro MG
8th place · 36 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Internacional 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gremio 3:0
- 08.08.2026 away Remo 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away Palmeiras 2:1
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs Atletico Mineiro MG away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | Atletico Mineiro MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–2 | 4–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 31% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.03.2026 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 25.08.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 06.04.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 24.11.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 12.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 03.12.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sao Paulo FC SP meet Atletico Mineiro MG in Brasileiro Serie A with the hosts holding a slight but well-supported edge. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring contest, suggesting a match that could develop through periods of balance rather than one-sided control. Sao Paulo FC SP should have the stronger overall position, but Atletico Mineiro MG remain capable of keeping the game close and creating pressure of their own.
The central question is whether both sides can find the net, with that outcome assessed as evenly balanced. This leaves several plausible paths for the match: a 1:1 draw reflects the uncertainty between the teams, while 1:0 and 2:1 indicate how the home advantage could prove decisive in a competitive game. The 1X signal also favours Sao Paulo FC SP avoiding defeat, although the scoring profile suggests Atletico Mineiro MG may have opportunities to influence the result.
What matters before kick-off
Injury updates for Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro entered the match with several injury absences, including goalkeeper Everson due to a foot fracture, as well as Ruan Tressoldi and Thiago Borbas with hamstring injuries.
Atlético Mineiro's recent Cup success
Just days before traveling to face São Paulo, Atlético Mineiro secured a 2-1 victory over rivals Cruzeiro in the Copa do Brasil.
São Paulo's previous league victory
In their preceding Série A match, São Paulo claimed a 2-1 home victory over Red Bull Bragantino with goals from Luciano Neves and Gustavo Santana.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.