Cruzeiro EC MG — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Cruzeiro EC MG
6th place · 39 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Vasco 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 09.08.2026 home Mirassol 3:1
- 31.07.2026 away Coritiba 1:0
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 45 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Fluminense 3:3
- 25.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 3:2
- 15.08.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 09.08.2026 away Santos 2:0
- 30.07.2026 away Corinthians 0:0
This season: Cruzeiro EC MG at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | Cruzeiro EC MG · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–3 | 5–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.62 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.15 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.03.2026 CA Paranaense PR 2:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 26.10.2024 CA Paranaense PR 3:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 26.06.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 30.11.2023 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 29.07.2023 CA Paranaense PR 3:3 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 07.11.2019 CA Paranaense PR 0:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG go into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight but well-supported advantage over CA Paranaense PR. The qualitative assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, while the 1X signal indicates that Cruzeiro EC MG are favoured to avoid defeat. That edge is not overwhelming, however, and the available outlook still leaves room for a balanced contest.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility rather than a clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, which reflects a game where Cruzeiro EC MG may have the better platform but CA Paranaense PR remain capable of making the result competitive. Overall, the analysis leans toward the hosts, with the draw remaining a meaningful alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Matchday 26 fixture
Cruzeiro host Athletico Paranaense at the Mineirao stadium in Belo Horizonte for Matchday 26 of the 2026 Brasileirao Serie A.
Team availability news
Cruzeiro are without forwards Bruno Rodrigues, Luis Sinisterra and Gabriel Pec, while Athletico Paranaense are missing defender Gaston Benavidez due to suspension.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.