Cruzeiro EC MG — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG go into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight but well-supported advantage over CA Paranaense PR. The qualitative assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, while the 1X signal indicates that Cruzeiro EC MG are favoured to avoid defeat. That edge is not overwhelming, however, and the available outlook still leaves room for a balanced contest.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility rather than a clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, which reflects a game where Cruzeiro EC MG may have the better platform but CA Paranaense PR remain capable of making the result competitive. Overall, the analysis leans toward the hosts, with the draw remaining a meaningful alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Matchday 26 fixture
Cruzeiro host Athletico Paranaense at the Mineirao stadium in Belo Horizonte for Matchday 26 of the 2026 Brasileirao Serie A.
Team availability news
Cruzeiro are without forwards Bruno Rodrigues, Luis Sinisterra and Gabriel Pec, while Athletico Paranaense are missing defender Gaston Benavidez due to suspension.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.