Coritiba FC PR — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.5% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR and Mirassol FC SP look evenly matched ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small details, such as how effectively each team manages possession and creates chances in key areas.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although there is no strong indication that both teams will find the net. Both teams scoring is viewed as a coin flip, leaving several different game patterns plausible. A cautious opening could develop into a more open encounter if either side takes the initiative, but a controlled and closely contested match is also consistent with the assessment. The market signal gives some protection to the home side, while the broader outlook remains balanced rather than pointing firmly toward Coritiba FC PR or Mirassol FC SP.
What matters before kick-off
League standings ahead of Round 26
Coritiba enter the 26th round of the 2026 Brasileirão Série A in seventh place with 37 points from 25 matches. Mirassol sit in 17th place with 25 points.
Coritiba's recent comeback win
In their previous Serie A match, Coritiba secured a 3-2 comeback victory away against Remo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.