Red Bull Bragantino SP — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP hold a slight edge over EC Bahia BA in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but not enough separation to rule out a draw. Home advantage is the main factor behind the preference for Red Bull Bragantino SP, while EC Bahia BA remain well placed to stay involved throughout the match.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking action, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a balanced tactical battle rather than a one-sided performance, and the visitors should have opportunities to test the home defence. Red Bull Bragantino SP appear more likely to control the key phases and create the clearer path to victory, but the margin is expected to remain narrow. The main analytical signal therefore supports the hosts avoiding defeat, with a draw still a realistic outcome if EC Bahia BA convert their chances.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull Bragantino squad absences
Agustín Sant'Anna and Isidro Pitta miss the round 26 fixture against Bahia due to suspension, while Eduardo Sasha remains sidelined with knee pain.
Bahia's unbeaten streak
Bahia enter the match against Red Bull Bragantino on a nine-game unbeaten run in the Brazilian Championship, recording four wins and five draws.
Serie A round 26 clash
The round 26 Brazilian Championship match between Red Bull Bragantino and Bahia takes place at the Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Bragança Paulista.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.