Red Bull Bragantino SP — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Red Bull Bragantino SP
9th place · 35 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 15.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Corinthians 0:2
- 26.07.2026 home Coritiba 0:0
EC Bahia BA
5th place · 40 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Internacional 3:2
- 23.08.2026 away Vitoria 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 3:3
- 09.08.2026 home Vasco 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Fluminense 0:0
This season: Red Bull Bragantino SP at home vs EC Bahia BA away
| Metric | Red Bull Bragantino SP · at home | EC Bahia BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–4 | 5–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.03.2026 EC Bahia BA 2:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 02.11.2025 EC Bahia BA 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 12.06.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 0:3 EC Bahia BA
- 01.09.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:1 EC Bahia BA
- 12.05.2024 EC Bahia BA 1:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 20.08.2023 EC Bahia BA 4:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP hold a slight edge over EC Bahia BA in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but not enough separation to rule out a draw. Home advantage is the main factor behind the preference for Red Bull Bragantino SP, while EC Bahia BA remain well placed to stay involved throughout the match.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking action, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a balanced tactical battle rather than a one-sided performance, and the visitors should have opportunities to test the home defence. Red Bull Bragantino SP appear more likely to control the key phases and create the clearer path to victory, but the margin is expected to remain narrow. The main analytical signal therefore supports the hosts avoiding defeat, with a draw still a realistic outcome if EC Bahia BA convert their chances.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull Bragantino squad absences
Agustín Sant'Anna and Isidro Pitta miss the round 26 fixture against Bahia due to suspension, while Eduardo Sasha remains sidelined with knee pain.
Bahia's unbeaten streak
Bahia enter the match against Red Bull Bragantino on a nine-game unbeaten run in the Brazilian Championship, recording four wins and five draws.
Serie A round 26 clash
The round 26 Brazilian Championship match between Red Bull Bragantino and Bahia takes place at the Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Bragança Paulista.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.