SC Corinthians SP — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP have a slight but clearly supported edge over CA Paranaense PR in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points toward the home side avoiding defeat, with the 1X signal favouring Corinthians while still allowing for a draw. That makes home advantage relevant, but not enough to suggest a one-sided contest.
The expected character of the match is medium-scoring, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is difficult to separate from the alternative. The most plausible scorelines point to a close game: 1-1 and 1-0 both fit the overall outlook, while a goalless draw also remains within the range of realistic outcomes. CA Paranaense PR should therefore remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match controlled and compact. Corinthians enter with the stronger position in the analysis, but the margin between the teams appears narrow enough for a cautious, balanced encounter.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.