SC Corinthians SP — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.1% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.07.2026
SC Corinthians SP
8th place · 28 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Bahia 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Remo 3:0
- 30.05.2026 away Gremio 3:1
- 24.05.2026 home Atletico-MG 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:3
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 36 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 home Internacional 2:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 30.05.2026 home Mirassol 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Remo 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:1
This season: SC Corinthians SP at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | SC Corinthians SP · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–3 | 3–1–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.02.2026 CA Paranaense PR 0:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 18.10.2024 SC Corinthians SP 5:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 23.06.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 01.11.2023 SC Corinthians SP 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 24.06.2023 CA Paranaense PR 1:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 09.10.2022 SC Corinthians SP 2:1 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture with a slight home edge over CA Paranaense PR. The assessment points to a high-confidence lean toward the hosts, although the advantage remains narrow rather than decisive. The main expectation is for a controlled match in which neither side is likely to create a consistently open contest.
The scoring outlook is low, with 1:0, 1:1 and 0:0 identified as the most likely scorelines. That range reflects a game where small details could shape the result and where defensive discipline may carry particular weight. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting goals at both ends. Overall, the 1X signal supports SC Corinthians SP avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a meaningful possibility and CA Paranaense PR retain a route to making the contest difficult.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and availability
Corinthians left-back Fabrizio Angileri is suspended for this match. Meanwhile, Athletico Paranaense welcome back defender Arthur Dias following his suspension.
Recent official results
Corinthians head into round 21 following a 1-1 away draw with Bahia. Athletico Paranaense secured a 2-0 home victory against Internacional in their last league outing.
Visitors' winless run in São Paulo
Athletico Paranaense are currently on an 11-match winless streak as visitors against Corinthians at the Neo Química Arena.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.