Fluminense FC RJ — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.07.2026
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 33 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Gremio 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 01.06.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:1
- 23.05.2026 away Mirassol 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
EC Bahia BA
6th place · 31 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Corinthians 1:1
- 21.07.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 17.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:0
- 30.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 2:1
- 26.05.2026 away Coritiba 2:3
This season: Fluminense FC RJ at home vs EC Bahia BA away
| Metric | Fluminense FC RJ · at home | EC Bahia BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–1 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.10 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.02.2026 EC Bahia BA 1:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 07.12.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 2:0 EC Bahia BA
- 10.08.2025 EC Bahia BA 3:3 Fluminense FC RJ
- 04.08.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 EC Bahia BA
- 17.04.2024 EC Bahia BA 2:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 31.10.2023 EC Bahia BA 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ have a slight edge over EC Bahia BA in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a closely balanced contest. The home side may have the stronger underlying signal, but the available information does not suggest a decisive gap between the teams. That makes game management and the ability to handle uncertain phases particularly important.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0 standing out as the most likely scorelines. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, effectively making it a coin flip rather than a clear expectation. Fluminense FC RJ could have enough advantage to prevail, but EC Bahia BA are well placed to keep the match competitive, and a draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Bahia squad absences
EC Bahia travel to face Fluminense without suspended players David Duarte and Zé Guilherme, while Everaldo is unavailable due to contractual reasons.
Fluminense defensive injuries
Fluminense defenders J. Millán and Jemmes miss the match against Bahia due to muscle injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.