Fluminense FC RJ — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.4% / 22.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 4.75 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ have a slight but credible edge over EC Bahia BA in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The overall assessment points toward the home side avoiding defeat, with the 1X signal reflecting Fluminense’s stronger position while still leaving room for a draw. This is not a matchup that appears heavily tilted, so Bahia should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the game balanced through the midfield.
A medium-scoring contest is the most fitting expectation. Both teams scoring is regarded as an evenly balanced possibility rather than a firm pattern, which leaves several plausible routes for the match. The projected scorelines include 1-1, 2-1 to Fluminense FC RJ, and 1-0 to the hosts. Taken together, those scenarios suggest a narrow home advantage, with the margin likely to remain limited rather than developing into a one-sided result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.