EC Vitoria BA — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.1% |
| 12 | 68.9% | |
| X2 | 79.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.0% / 78.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.07.2026
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 26 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Remo 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 31.05.2026 away Santos 1:3
- 23.05.2026 home Internacional 2:0
SE Palmeiras SP
1st place · 44 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Atletico-MG 1:2
- 22.07.2026 away Coritiba 3:1
- 31.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Flamengo RJ 3:0
- 17.05.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:1
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–1 | 6–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.02.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 5:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 19.11.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 0:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 03.08.2025 EC Vitoria BA 2:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 27.07.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 0:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 14.04.2024 EC Vitoria BA 0:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 02.12.2018 SE Palmeiras SP 3:2 EC Vitoria BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA face SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A, with the available indicators pointing to a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence in that assessment is high, although the outlook still allows for a draw, making the away side or draw the stronger overall angle. The match is projected to be medium-scoring rather than dominated by either an open attacking pattern or a very defensive setup.
SE Palmeiras SP appear better positioned to control the result, but EC Vitoria BA remain capable of keeping the contest balanced. The possibility of both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as evenly poised. The most likely scorelines include a draw with goals, a narrow victory for SE Palmeiras SP, and a goalless draw, which reflects a match where the visitors have the clearer advantage but not an overwhelming one.
What matters before kick-off
Palmeiras squad news
Palmeiras forward Paulinho is ruled out due to a left ankle sprain. Meanwhile, striker Flaco López returns to the squad and is available for selection.
Martínez returns for Vitória
Vitória Argentine midfielder Emmanuel Martínez is available again after serving a suspension in the previous round.
Recent round results
Both teams enter the match following defeats in round 20 of Série A: Vitória lost 2–0 away to Remo, while Palmeiras suffered a 2–1 home defeat to Atlético-MG, ending a 14-match unbeaten run in the league.
Record start for Palmeiras
Palmeiras is recording its best-ever start in a round-robin Campeonato Brasileiro season (since 2003), earning 44 points from their opening 20 matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.