Coritiba FC PR — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.4% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 72.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR host Cruzeiro EC MG in Brasileiro Serie A, with the analysis pointing to a slight but meaningful edge for the visitors. The overall signal favors Cruzeiro EC MG avoiding defeat, while the “2X” outlook also leaves room for a draw. This suggests a competitive match in which Coritiba FC PR may remain in contention, but Cruzeiro EC MG enter with the stronger projection.
The scoring outlook is medium, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is balanced rather than clearly indicated. The most likely scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 offers a plausible stalemate, while 0:1 gives Cruzeiro EC MG a narrow victory and 0:0 points to a more cautious encounter. Coritiba FC PR therefore have a realistic path to a draw, but the stronger analytical lean is toward Cruzeiro EC MG taking at least a point and possibly winning by a slim margin.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.