Coritiba FC PR — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.7% |
| 12 | 69.9% | |
| X2 | 71.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.07.2026
Coritiba FC PR
10th place · 27 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Bragantino 0:0
- 22.07.2026 home Palmeiras 1:3
- 30.05.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
- 26.05.2026 home Bahia 3:2
- 17.05.2026 away Santos 3:0
Cruzeiro EC MG
11th place · 27 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Botafogo RJ 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Internacional 2:1
- 01.06.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 24.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Palmeiras 1:1
This season: Coritiba FC PR at home vs Cruzeiro EC MG away
| Metric | Coritiba FC PR · at home | Cruzeiro EC MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–3 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.22 | 1.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.02.2026 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:2 Coritiba FC PR
- 11.11.2023 Coritiba FC PR 1:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 16.07.2023 Cruzeiro EC MG 0:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 18.10.2017 Coritiba FC PR 1:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 25.06.2017 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 14.08.2016 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:2 Coritiba FC PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR host Cruzeiro EC MG in the Brasileiro Serie A, with the available assessment pointing to a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence is moderate, so the matchup appears competitive rather than one-sided. Cruzeiro EC MG have the stronger overall signal, but Coritiba FC PR remain well placed to make the contest difficult, particularly if they can keep the game balanced through the opening stages.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, which underlines the narrow margin between a draw and a controlled Cruzeiro EC MG victory. Coritiba FC PR will likely need defensive discipline and efficient use of their opportunities, whereas Cruzeiro EC MG can focus on maintaining structure and taking advantage of moments in transition. Overall, the X2 signal supports avoiding a clear expectation of a home win, with the visitors holding only a measured advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Cruzeiro squad updates
Midfielders Gerson and Matheus Pereira return to the Cruzeiro squad after serving suspensions. However, right-back Fagner is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, while forward Luis Sinisterra remains sidelined with a thigh injury.
Coritiba goalkeeper recovery
Coritiba expect goalkeeper Pedro Morisco to be available for the match against Cruzeiro after recovering from a right shoulder dislocation that kept him out for five months.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.