Sassuolo Calcio — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 27.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.2% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 72.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 27.10.2026
Sassuolo Calcio
14th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Como 0:2
- 16.10.2026 away Frosinone 2:4
- 11.10.2026 home Milan 1:1
- 18.09.2026 away Monza 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Juventus 3:2
Lazio Rome
2nd place · 22 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Parma 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Juventus 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Monza 3:1
- 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Milan 2:2
This season: Sassuolo Calcio at home vs Lazio Rome away
| Metric | Sassuolo Calcio · at home | Lazio Rome · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 4–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 0.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 1.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.03.2026 Lazio Rome 2:1 Sassuolo Calcio
- 14.09.2025 Sassuolo Calcio 1:0 Lazio Rome
- 26.05.2024 Lazio Rome 1:1 Sassuolo Calcio
- 21.10.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 0:2 Lazio Rome
- 03.05.2023 Lazio Rome 2:0 Sassuolo Calcio
- 15.01.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 0:2 Lazio Rome
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sassuolo Calcio face Lazio Rome in Serie A in a contest that looks evenly matched in overall terms, although the visitors arrive with the stronger recent record. Sassuolo Calcio have won just one of their last five matches, drawing twice and losing twice, despite scoring nine goals in that run. Their home form offers some encouragement: they remain unbeaten across three league games on their own ground, with two wins and a draw. However, their defensive record suggests there may be opportunities for Lazio Rome to exploit.
Lazio Rome have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding only four. Their away record is particularly convincing, with four wins from four matches, eight goals scored and just one conceded. They also hold the historical advantage in this fixture, winning four of the last six meetings, including a 2-1 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026. These results give Lazio Rome a stronger statistical foundation, but Sassuolo Calcio's unbeaten home record should not be overlooked.
A moderately balanced match with goals from both sides is a reasonable expectation. Sassuolo Calcio have demonstrated attacking potential at home, while Lazio Rome's consistent form makes them difficult to dismiss. The visitors appear better placed to avoid defeat, although a draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Lazio heading into match following win over Parma
Lazio head into the fixture on the back of a 2-1 Serie A home victory against Parma, continuing their strong early-season league form under Gennaro Gattuso.
Massive away support expected for Lazio
Around 10,000 Lazio supporters are expected to travel to the Mapei Stadium to support their team against Sassuolo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.