AC Milan — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

AC Milan enter this Serie A meeting with Bologna FC holding a slight edge, particularly given their strong home form. They have won all three home matches this season, scoring eight goals and conceding just two, while their overall record places them fifth with 15 points from seven games. Their recent results show consistency rather than complete dominance, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. The ability to create clearly more chances than they allow at home gives AC Milan a solid foundation, although the overall outlook remains cautious.

Bologna FC sit 13th with eight points from eight matches and have produced a mixed run of two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five outings. Their away record is competitive, with two wins and two losses in four matches, and they have conceded only three goals on the road. That defensive resilience could make this a more balanced contest than the league positions suggest. However, the head-to-head record favours AC Milan, who have won four of the last six meetings, including a 3-0 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026. A moderately scoring match looks plausible, with AC Milan better positioned to take the initiative, but Bologna FC have enough away resilience to keep the outcome uncertain.