AC Monza — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

AC Monza face SSC Napoli in Serie A with a slight edge for the visitors, whose recent form and stronger league position provide a solid basis for expecting a competitive but challenging away fixture. AC Monza have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 10. Their attacking output has been encouraging, although the defensive record suggests that maintaining control throughout the match could be difficult. Currently 15th with seven points from eight games, they will look to make the most of their home advantage.

SSC Napoli sit 10th with 11 points from eight matches and have shown greater consistency in their recent results, recording two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five outings. They have conceded only five goals over that period, indicating a more reliable defensive platform. Their away record remains mixed, with one win, one draw and two losses, so their advantage should not be overstated. However, the head-to-head record favours SSC Napoli, who have won four of the six meetings, including a 1-0 victory in the most recent encounter in 2025.

The overall picture points towards a moderately open contest, with AC Monza capable of creating scoring opportunities on home soil and SSC Napoli better placed to manage the key moments. A draw remains plausible, but SSC Napoli have the stronger overall case to avoid defeat, with a narrow away win also a reasonable possibility.