Frosinone Calcio — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026

Frosinone Calcio enter this Serie A fixture with a slight edge over US Lecce, supported by a stronger league position and a more convincing home record. Sitting sixth with 14 points from eight matches, Frosinone Calcio have made a solid start to the campaign. Their home performances have been particularly encouraging, with three wins from four games and nine goals scored. However, their recent form has been less consistent, producing two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches. Their tendency to concede chances despite creating fewer themselves remains a concern, especially against opponents capable of exploiting defensive space.

US Lecce arrive in a less stable run of form, having lost three of their last five matches while scoring seven goals and conceding nine. They sit 12th with nine points, but their away record offers reasons for caution before favouring the hosts too strongly: two wins from four away matches, with only four goals conceded. Their ability to create and allow chances at a relatively balanced rate could make this a competitive contest. The head-to-head record also points towards a difficult matchup for Frosinone Calcio, who have not won any of the six recorded meetings, while the most recent encounter ended 1-1 in 2024. Overall, the hosts hold a moderate advantage, but both teams have a credible route to scoring in what could be an open match.