ACF Fiorentina — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026

ACF Fiorentina have a slight edge against Atalanta BC in this Serie A encounter, although their current league position makes a positive result far from straightforward. Sitting 18th with four points from eight matches, the hosts have struggled to turn their attacking efforts into consistent results. Their last five matches have produced one win, one draw and three defeats, with eight goals scored and ten conceded. At home, ACF Fiorentina have yet to win in four games, drawing once and losing three times. However, their ability to create clearly more chances than they allow offers some encouragement ahead of this fixture.

Atalanta BC arrive in 11th place with ten points, but their recent form is similarly inconsistent, with one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches. Their away record is particularly concerning: three defeats from three games, with seven goals conceded and only three scored. They have also allowed more chances than they create on the road, giving ACF Fiorentina an opportunity to exploit their defensive vulnerabilities. The head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with ACF Fiorentina winning three of the last six meetings and Atalanta BC winning two, while the most recent encounter ended 1-1. Both sides have reasons to expect scoring opportunities, making an open contest plausible. ACF Fiorentina hold a moderate, narrow advantage, but their home struggles leave a draw or an Atalanta BC response firmly within consideration.