Sassuolo Calcio — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.1%
Home win
Sassuolo Calcio
X
26.7%
Draw
W2
35.1%
Away win
ACF Fiorentina
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.3%
Both teams to score
Yes64.1%
Totals 2.5
Over60.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.9% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Goal distribution model
Sassuolo Calcio × ACF Fiorentina
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
5.2%
0:2
5.1%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
1.0%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
8.2%
1:3
4.2%
1:4
1.6%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.6%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
6.6%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.0%
3:1
4.6%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
1.8%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
2:18.6%
1:28.2%
2:26.6%
0:05.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
Sassuolo Calcio
14th place · 8 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.10.2026 home Lazio 2:6
- 24.10.2026 away Como 0:2
- 16.10.2026 away Frosinone 2:4
- 11.10.2026 home Milan 1:1
- 18.09.2026 away Monza 1:2
ACF Fiorentina
18th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Inter 1:2
- 18.10.2026 home Como 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Genoa 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Napoli 1:1
- 11.09.2026 away Venezia 4:2
This season: Sassuolo Calcio at home vs ACF Fiorentina away
| Metric | Sassuolo Calcio · at home | ACF Fiorentina · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.16 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 1.98 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 4.75 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sassuolo Calcio wins2
Draws1
ACF Fiorentina wins3
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 26.04.2026 ACF Fiorentina 0:0 Sassuolo Calcio
- 06.12.2025 Sassuolo Calcio 3:1 ACF Fiorentina
- 28.04.2024 ACF Fiorentina 5:1 Sassuolo Calcio
- 06.01.2024 Sassuolo Calcio 1:0 ACF Fiorentina
- 02.06.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 1:3 ACF Fiorentina
- 07.01.2023 ACF Fiorentina 2:1 Sassuolo Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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