Atalanta BC — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
68.1%
Home win
Atalanta BC
X
20.8%
Draw
W2
11.0%
Away win
Parma Calcio
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X89.0%
Both teams to score
No51.1%
Totals 2.5
Over56.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.0% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
Goal distribution model
Atalanta BC × Parma Calcio
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.4%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
1.6%
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.4%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
3.4%
1:3
0.9%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.4%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
3.7%
2:3
1.0%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
8.9%
3:1
6.9%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
4.8%
4:1
3.8%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
1.6%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.4%
1:010.4%
1:110.0%
2:19.6%
3:08.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
Atalanta BC
11th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Frosinone 4:4
- 18.10.2026 away Milan 2:3
- 12.10.2026 home Venezia 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
Parma Calcio
19th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Lazio 1:2
- 19.10.2026 home Torino 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Inter 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Genoa 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Como 1:2
This season: Atalanta BC at home vs Parma Calcio away
| Metric | Atalanta BC · at home | Parma Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–1 | 0–0–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.66 | 0.68 |
| xG against per match | 1.99 | 2.27 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.60 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.80 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atalanta BC wins4
Draws1
Parma Calcio wins1
Goals per match4.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 25.01.2026 Atalanta BC 4:0 Parma Calcio
- 30.08.2025 Parma Calcio 1:1 Atalanta BC
- 25.05.2025 Atalanta BC 2:3 Parma Calcio
- 23.11.2024 Parma Calcio 1:3 Atalanta BC
- 09.05.2021 Parma Calcio 2:5 Atalanta BC
- 06.01.2021 Atalanta BC 3:0 Parma Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 7.50 |
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