Sao Paulo FC SP — SC Internacional RS: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.5% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
12th place · 33 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Palmeiras 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:0
- 30.08.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Coritiba 1:1
SC Internacional RS
16th place · 28 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Santos 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Bahia 2:3
- 22.08.2026 home Atletico-MG 0:0
- 18.08.2026 home Remo 1:1
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs SC Internacional RS away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | SC Internacional RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 3–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.83 | 1.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 62% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.04.2026 SC Internacional RS 1:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 03.12.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 3:0 SC Internacional RS
- 04.08.2025 SC Internacional RS 1:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 22.09.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:3 SC Internacional RS
- 14.06.2024 SC Internacional RS 0:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 14.09.2023 SC Internacional RS 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sao Paulo FC SP go into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight but credible edge over SC Internacional RS. The overall signal favours the home side while keeping the draw firmly in consideration, so the match may be decided by small differences in control, efficiency, and the ability to manage key phases. SC Internacional RS remain capable of making the contest difficult, particularly if they can keep the game balanced and limit Sao Paulo FC SP's opportunities.
A medium-scoring match appears the most suitable expectation. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, making either a cautious contest or a more open exchange plausible depending on the early rhythm. The most representative scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:0, which reflect a narrow home advantage rather than a one-sided game. Sao Paulo FC SP have the stronger position in the assessment, but the margin is not wide enough to dismiss a draw as a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Pablo Maia suspended for São Paulo
São Paulo midfielder Pablo Maia is unavailable for the Round 28 fixture against Internacional due to suspension.
Pedro Lima available for São Paulo debut
Right-back Pedro Lima, joined on loan from Wolverhampton, has been registered with the CBF and is in line to make his debut against Internacional.
São Paulo eliminated from Copa Sudamericana mid-week
São Paulo enter the match following a 1–1 draw with Boca Juniors mid-week that saw them eliminated in the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.