SC Corinthians SP — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% |
| 12 | 70.5% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.20 → now 2.05 |
| X | was 3.10 → now 3.20 |
| W2 | was 3.70 → now 4.00 |
Match preview
SC Corinthians SP meet Fluminense FC RJ in Brasileiro Serie A on 20 September 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 19:00 UTC. The available assessment gives SC Corinthians SP a slight edge, and the confidence in that reading is high. It is not a dominant advantage, however, so Fluminense FC RJ remain a credible threat to take something from the match. The 1X signal supports a home win or draw as the main outcome range.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, although the possibility of a low-event contest is also reflected in the suggested scorelines. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, which leaves several plausible scenarios rather than one clear attacking script. The most prominent possibilities are a 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 victory for SC Corinthians SP, or a goalless draw. Overall, the balance leans toward the hosts, but the match profile suggests limited separation and a potentially close contest.
What matters before kick-off
Corinthians Team News
Corinthians face Fluminense with several absences: defender Gabriel Paulista has reported pubic discomfort, while Yuri Alberto, Kayke, and Zakaria Labyad remain sidelined due to injuries.
Fluminense Squad News
Fluminense welcome back midfielder Nonato following his suspension, but Germán Cano and John Kennedy remain unavailable due to injuries, while Guga is rested following a discomfort.
Form and Recent Schedule
Corinthians enter the clash seeking to snap a five-match losing streak in Série A following their Copa Libertadores exit, while Fluminense arrive having recently secured progress to the Libertadores semi-finals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.