Atletico Mineiro MG — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG have a slight but credible edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The overall assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side is better placed, while the gap between the teams does not appear large enough to dismiss a draw. Atletico Mineiro MG should therefore be viewed as the more likely team to avoid defeat, but the contest may remain close for long periods.
The expected attacking profile is medium-scoring rather than an open goal-fest. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, with the possibility of goals at both ends balanced against a more controlled home performance. A narrow Atletico Mineiro MG win and a draw are the most plausible broad scenarios, while Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS remain capable of making the match uncomfortable if they defend compactly and take their chances. The clearest analytical signal is support for the home side or a draw, rather than a decisive result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.