EC Vitoria BA — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.5% |
| 12 | 67.5% | |
| X2 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
EC Vitoria BA
12th place · 29 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:0
- 09.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.07.2026 home Palmeiras 0:4
- 26.07.2026 away Remo 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
EC Bahia BA
6th place · 34 pts after 23Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 3:3
- 09.08.2026 home Vasco 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Fluminense 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Corinthians 1:1
- 21.07.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs EC Bahia BA away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | EC Bahia BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 8–1–2 | 4–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.64 | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 18% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.03.2026 EC Bahia BA 1:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 17.10.2025 EC Vitoria BA 2:1 EC Bahia BA
- 18.05.2025 EC Bahia BA 2:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 11.08.2024 EC Bahia BA 2:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 21.04.2024 EC Vitoria BA 2:2 EC Bahia BA
- 11.11.2018 EC Vitoria BA 2:2 EC Bahia BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA and EC Bahia BA meet in Brasileiro Serie A with the indications pointing to an evenly matched contest. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear superiority, while the visitors also appear capable of competing on level terms. With moderate confidence, the main reading is a cautious lean toward the 1X outcome, meaning EC Vitoria BA have a slight advantage in the possibility of avoiding defeat, rather than a strong expectation of victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, although the likelihood of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That uncertainty makes the game difficult to separate, with 1-1 standing out as a plausible scoreline alongside more restrained scenarios such as 0-0. A 2-1 result for EC Vitoria BA is also within the range of reasonable outcomes, but the broader picture is of two closely matched sides and a contest likely to be decided by small details.
What matters before kick-off
Previous Round Results
Heading into the derby, Vitória secured a 1-0 victory over Botafogo, while Bahia played out a 3-3 draw against Chapecoense.
Ba-Vi Derby History
The 2026 Brasileirão round 24 matchup marks the 508th official meeting between Bahia and Vitória.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.