Red Bull Bragantino SP — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Red Bull Bragantino SP
8th place · 32 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Corinthians 0:2
- 26.07.2026 home Coritiba 0:0
- 18.07.2026 away Fluminense 1:1
- 31.05.2026 home Internacional 3:1
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
16th place · 25 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:3
- 08.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 18.07.2026 away Mirassol 1:2
- 30.05.2026 home Corinthians 1:3
This season: Red Bull Bragantino SP at home vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS away
| Metric | Red Bull Bragantino SP · at home | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–4 | 0–4–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 0.55 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.03.2026 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 04.10.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 10.05.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 15.09.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 01.06.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0:2 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 15.09.2023 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS. The available assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive. The match is expected to sit around a medium-scoring range, leaving room for different game patterns.
The central uncertainty concerns whether both teams will find the net, with that outcome assessed as evenly balanced. Red Bull Bragantino SP could control more of the contest and create the better opportunities, while Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS remain capable of keeping the match competitive. A narrow home win and a draw both fit the broader outlook, with a goalless contribution from the visitors also plausible. The overall picture favours Red Bull Bragantino SP, but not to the extent that Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS can be discounted.
What matters before kick-off
Brasileirão Round 24 clash
Red Bull Bragantino face Grêmio in the 24th round of the Brazilian Série A. The first-leg encounter between the two sides earlier in the season ended in a 1–1 draw.
Grêmio recent league form
Grêmio enter the match looking to recover after suffering a 3–0 away defeat against Atlético Mineiro in their previous Série A fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.