Chapecoense SC — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.4% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 78.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 11 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Bahia 3:3
- 09.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 23.07.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:4
- 17.07.2026 away Bahia 0:2
Sao Paulo FC SP
13th place · 27 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Coritiba 1:1
- 08.08.2026 away Gremio 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:2
- 01.06.2026 away Remo 0:1
This season: Chapecoense SC at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | Chapecoense SC · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 1–5–5 | 2–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.45 | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.03.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 03.10.2021 Chapecoense SC 1:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 16.06.2021 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:1 Chapecoense SC
- 03.11.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:3 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 23.07.2019 Sao Paulo FC SP 4:0 Chapecoense SC
- 02.12.2018 Chapecoense SC 1:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chapecoense SC face Sao Paulo FC SP in Brasileiro Serie A, with the visitors holding a slight but meaningful advantage in the pre-match assessment. The outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest, while the overall result signal favors Sao Paulo FC SP avoiding defeat. That gives the visitors the stronger position, although the forecast does not suggest a one-sided match.
Goals from both teams remain difficult to assess, with the balance between both scoring and one side being shut out considered finely poised. The likely score patterns include a level contest and a narrow away win, which reflects the limited separation between the teams in attacking terms. Chapecoense SC may therefore remain competitive, but Sao Paulo FC SP enter with the clearer analytical edge and the more favorable result profile.
What matters before kick-off
São Paulo's Copa Sudamericana progress
São Paulo enter the match against Chapecoense after qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals, having overcome Bolivian side Bolívar 4-2 on aggregate.
São Paulo injury absentees
São Paulo are missing several players due to injury, including Lucas Moura, Robert Arboleda, Rafael Tolói, Damián Bobadilla, Lucca, and Victor Sá.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.