Santos FC SP — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.8% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Santos FC SP
14th place · 25 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Vasco 3:0
- 09.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:2
- 25.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:2
- 16.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:2
- 31.05.2026 home Vitoria 3:1
Mirassol FC SP
17th place · 23 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:5
- 09.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Vasco 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Gremio 2:1
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs Mirassol FC SP away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | Mirassol FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–4 | 1–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 11.03.2026 Mirassol FC SP 2:2 Santos FC SP
- 20.11.2025 Santos FC SP 1:1 Mirassol FC SP
- 19.07.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:0 Santos FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP hold a slight edge over Mirassol FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. The market signal supports a result protecting against either a Santos FC SP victory or a draw, suggesting that home control is the central theme of the matchup rather than a decisive gap between the teams.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That points toward a match in which Santos FC SP may have the stronger overall platform but Mirassol FC SP should remain competitive. A draw is a credible scenario, particularly if the visitors manage to limit the hosts' attacking opportunities, while a narrow home win also fits the broader assessment. Possible scorelines include 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1.
What matters before kick-off
Santos progress in Copa Sudamericana
Santos enter the match following a 3-0 league win against Vasco da Gama and a 0-0 draw with Ecuador's Macara that sealed their qualification for the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals.
Mirassol eliminated from Copa Libertadores
Mirassol were eliminated from the Copa Libertadores on penalties by Ecuador's LDU Quito on Thursday.
Santos home record against Mirassol
Santos have never lost to Mirassol at Vila Belmiro, recording eight wins and two draws in 10 home matches against them.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.