Mirassol FC SP — Botafogo FR RJ: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Mirassol FC SP
15th place · 29 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Vitoria 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Coritiba 2:1
- 02.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Palmeiras 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Santos 1:1
Botafogo FR RJ
11th place · 35 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home Gremio 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
- 25.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 2:3
This season: Mirassol FC SP at home vs Botafogo FR RJ away
| Metric | Mirassol FC SP · at home | Botafogo FR RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–5–4 | 4–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 01.04.2026 Botafogo FR RJ 3:2 Mirassol FC SP
- 01.11.2025 Mirassol FC SP 0:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 17.09.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 3:3 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP have a slight home advantage over Botafogo FR RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, with high confidence in that assessment. The match profile points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair, as the hosts hold the clearer edge while Botafogo FR RJ remain capable of posing a significant threat.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination suggests a match in which Mirassol FC SP may be more likely to control the overall outcome, but Botafogo FR RJ should have opportunities to stay involved. The central outlook therefore favors the hosts while allowing for a draw as a realistic alternative, making the home side or draw the most consistent reading of the available signals.
What matters before kick-off
Tite debuts as Botafogo manager
The match against Mirassol marks Tite's debut as Botafogo head coach. Botafogo also welcome back defender Nahuel Ferraresi from suspension.
Squad changes for Mirassol
Defender João Victor and midfielder Denilson return to Mirassol's squad after serving suspensions. However, forward Alesson is suspended due to yellow card accumulation.
Recent result for Botafogo
Botafogo enter round 28 of Serie A following a 3-2 victory over Grêmio in a rescheduled round 21 fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.