Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.0% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 77.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS face SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A with the visitors holding a slight but meaningful edge. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with SE Palmeiras SP better positioned to avoid defeat. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS should still have a credible opportunity to keep the game balanced, particularly if they can limit the visitors’ control and maintain structure without the ball.
The expected scoring level is medium, suggesting a match with several meaningful attacking phases but not necessarily an open exchange from start to finish. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its chances. The most plausible score patterns are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a narrow margin and a realistic possibility of a draw. Overall, the analysis supports a cautious preference for SE Palmeiras SP, with the draw remaining an important alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Suspension details for Palmeiras
Defender Murilo misses the round 28 fixture against Grêmio due to yellow card accumulation. Head coach Abel Ferreira is also serving a suspension and will not be on the touchline.
Palmeiras position in the standings
Heading into round 28 of the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, Palmeiras occupy second place in the standings with 56 points from 27 matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.