CR Vasco da Gama RJ — Coritiba FC PR: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.9% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.8% / 51.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
18th place · 28 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Gremio 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Fluminense 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
- 16.08.2026 home Santos 0:3
Coritiba FC PR
8th place · 38 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:3
- 06.09.2026 home Mirassol 1:2
- 01.09.2026 away Remo 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:1
This season: CR Vasco da Gama RJ at home vs Coritiba FC PR away
| Metric | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · at home | Coritiba FC PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–5 | 5–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 46% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.04.2026 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 21.09.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 5:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 11.05.2023 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 17.01.2021 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 20.09.2020 Coritiba FC PR 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 21.10.2017 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:1 Coritiba FC PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Vasco da Gama RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture with a clear but moderate edge over Coritiba FC PR. The available assessment points to the home side being stronger overall, while the expected scoring profile suggests a match with a medium level of attacking output rather than an open goal-fest. That makes control, efficiency, and the ability to turn territorial superiority into clear chances important factors.
The most likely scorelines are 2:0 and 1:0, although 1:1 remains a realistic alternative. The outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, so there is no strong indication that either side will definitely find the net. Coritiba FC PR may still remain competitive if they keep the game compact, while CR Vasco da Gama RJ will be expected to take the initiative and manage the match from the front.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability news
Vasco da Gama midfielder Tchê Tchê is suspended after accumulating three yellow cards. Coritiba will be missing Breno Lopes due to a red card suspension from the previous match, while Jacy is sidelined with a thigh injury.
Recent form and schedule
Vasco da Gama entered the fixture following a 2-1 away victory against Grêmio in Série A and advancing to the Copa Sudamericana semi-finals with a 2-0 win over Santa Fe. Coritiba drew 3-3 with Athletico Paranaense in their previous match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.