Atletico Mineiro MG — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.5% / 18.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
7th place · 39 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Fluminense 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Internacional 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gremio 3:0
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 17 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Internacional 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 30.08.2026 away Gremio 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Bahia 3:3
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–4–1 | 1–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.83 | 0.77 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.04.2026 Chapecoense SC 0:4 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 06.10.2021 Chapecoense SC 2:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 22.06.2021 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:1 Chapecoense SC
- 30.10.2019 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:2 Chapecoense SC
- 14.07.2019 Chapecoense SC 1:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 06.10.2018 Chapecoense SC 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side against Chapecoense SC. The assessment carries moderate confidence, so the hosts have a meaningful advantage without the match being treated as predetermined. The projected scoring environment is medium-scoring, suggesting a game that could be decided by a small number of goals rather than an unusually open contest.
The most consistent scoreline indications favor Atletico Mineiro MG, with 2:0, 1:0, and 3:0 among the likely outcomes. Chapecoense SC remain capable of influencing the match, and whether both teams score is viewed as evenly balanced rather than clearly resolved. Overall, the analysis points toward a home win, with the hosts’ superiority the main signal, while the exact margin and Chapecoense SC’s attacking contribution remain uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Atlético Mineiro mid-week result
Atlético Mineiro enter the match following a mid-week penalty shoot-out victory against Santos, which secured their place in the Copa Sudamericana semi-finals.
Team news and availability
Atlético Mineiro remain without injured players Everson, Ruan Tressoldi, and Victor Hugo, while Chapecoense are missing several squad members including Heitor and Bruno Tubarão.
Debut of new Atlético Mineiro kit
Atlético Mineiro will wear their new orange third kit for the first time in an official match, inspired by their supporters' traditional "Rua de Fogo" displays.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.