Sao Paulo FC SP — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.1%
Home win
Sao Paulo FC SP
X
29.5%
Draw
W2
24.4%
Away win
SC Corinthians SP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X75.6%
Both teams to score
No53.6%
Totals 2.5
Under59.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 70.5% | |
| X2 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Goal distribution model
Sao Paulo FC SP × SC Corinthians SP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
11.0%
0:1
8.2%
0:2
4.3%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
12.6%
1:1
13.8%
1:2
5.9%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.4%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
4.1%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
4.0%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.8%
1:012.6%
0:011.0%
2:09.4%
2:18.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
9th place · 43 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
- 18.10.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 08.10.2026 away Cruzeiro 0:2
- 03.10.2026 home Santos 1:2
SC Corinthians SP
18th place · 33 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Vasco 2:3
- 20.10.2026 home Vitoria 1:1
- 11.10.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
- 07.10.2026 away Internacional 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Fluminense 1:3
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs SC Corinthians SP away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | SC Corinthians SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 10–3–3 | 3–5–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.81 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sao Paulo FC SP wins3
Draws1
SC Corinthians SP wins2
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 10.05.2026 SC Corinthians SP 3:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 20.11.2025 SC Corinthians SP 3:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 20.07.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 29.09.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 3:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 16.06.2024 SC Corinthians SP 2:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 30.09.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:1 SC Corinthians SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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