CR Flamengo RJ — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
82.7%
Home win
CR Flamengo RJ
X
12.8%
Draw
W2
4.5%
Away win
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X95.5%
Both teams to score
No58.9%
Totals 2.5
Over65.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.5% |
| 12 | 87.2% | |
| X2 | 17.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Goal distribution model
CR Flamengo RJ × Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.1%
0:1
1.4%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.2%
1:1
6.1%
1:2
1.6%
1:3
0.3%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
13.6%
2:1
7.7%
2:2
2.2%
2:3
0.4%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
12.6%
3:1
7.1%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
0.4%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
8.8%
4:1
5.0%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
4.9%
5:1
2.8%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.6%
3:012.6%
1:09.2%
4:08.8%
2:17.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
1st place · 70 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 3:2
- 18.10.2026 away Bahia 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Fluminense 1:0
- 08.10.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
17th place · 34 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Coritiba 1:0
- 18.10.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:4
- 11.10.2026 home Internacional 1:1
- 07.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 12–3–1 | 1–5–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.63 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CR Flamengo RJ wins3
Draws1
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS wins2
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 10.05.2026 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0:1 CR Flamengo RJ
- 31.08.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 13.04.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 22.09.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 3:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 14.06.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 26.10.2023 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 3:2 CR Flamengo RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.25 → now 1.18 |
| X | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
| W2 | was 9.50 → now 15.00 |
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