Botafogo FR RJ — Atletico Mineiro MG: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.0%
Home win
Botafogo FR RJ
X
26.2%
Draw
W2
30.8%
Away win
Atletico Mineiro MG
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.8%
Both teams to score
Yes61.2%
Totals 2.5
Over57.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.2% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.5% / 64.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Goal distribution model
Botafogo FR RJ × Atletico Mineiro MG
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.0%
0:1
5.7%
0:2
4.6%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.0%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.7%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.2%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
5.0%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
2:19.1%
1:27.6%
1:07.0%
2:06.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Botafogo FR RJ
11th place · 39 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Internacional 0:3
- 17.10.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:0
- 12.10.2026 away Coritiba 1:1
- 08.10.2026 home Vasco 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Mirassol 0:2
Atletico Mineiro MG
6th place · 50 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Flamengo RJ 2:3
- 17.10.2026 home Coritiba 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Santos 2:1
- 09.10.2026 away Athletico-PR 2:2
- 03.10.2026 home Bragantino 1:0
This season: Botafogo FR RJ at home vs Atletico Mineiro MG away
| Metric | Botafogo FR RJ · at home | Atletico Mineiro MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 6–6–4 | 4–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.63 | 1.06 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Botafogo FR RJ wins2
Draws2
Atletico Mineiro MG wins2
Goals per match1.33
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 10.05.2026 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 20.09.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 20.04.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 21.11.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 08.07.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 3:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 17.09.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:0 Botafogo FR RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.