Chapecoense SC — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
30.8%
Home win
Chapecoense SC
X
26.2%
Draw
W2
43.0%
Away win
Mirassol FC SP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.8%
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
Totals 2.5
Over55.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.0% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 69.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
Chapecoense SC × Mirassol FC SP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.3%
0:1
7.8%
0:2
6.9%
0:3
3.7%
0:4
1.5%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.3%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
9.1%
1:3
4.8%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.7%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
3.3%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
1:29.1%
0:17.8%
2:17.5%
0:26.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 21 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Fluminense 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:1
- 12.10.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:4
- 08.10.2026 away Vitoria 0:4
- 19.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
Mirassol FC SP
15th place · 37 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Internacional 2:0
- 11.10.2026 away Bahia 0:1
- 07.10.2026 away Bragantino 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Botafogo RJ 2:0
This season: Chapecoense SC at home vs Mirassol FC SP away
| Metric | Chapecoense SC · at home | Mirassol FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 3–5–7 | 2–4–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 0.87 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.27 | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
Chapecoense SC wins0
Draws1
Mirassol FC SP wins0
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored1/1
Over 2.5 goals0/1
- 10.05.2026 Mirassol FC SP 1:1 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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