CA Paranaense PR — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
47.4%
Home win
CA Paranaense PR
X
25.9%
Draw
W2
26.7%
Away win
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.1%
Both teams to score
Yes56.9%
Totals 2.5
Over53.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 52.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.6% / 68.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Goal distribution model
CA Paranaense PR × CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
6.2%
0:2
4.1%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.9%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
6.8%
1:3
2.7%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.0%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.2%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.4%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:19.5%
1:08.9%
2:08.0%
1:26.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 54 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Vitoria 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Palmeiras 0:2
- 12.10.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:1
- 09.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
13th place · 38 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Corinthians 3:2
- 18.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Remo 0:0
- 08.10.2026 away Botafogo RJ 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Coritiba 5:0
This season: CA Paranaense PR at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | CA Paranaense PR · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 9–5–2 | 2–5–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.69 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.94 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 53% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CA Paranaense PR wins3
Draws1
CR Vasco da Gama RJ wins2
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 11.05.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 27.08.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 05.05.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 25.11.2023 CA Paranaense PR 0:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 23.07.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 27.12.2020 CA Paranaense PR 3:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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