Sao Paulo FC SP — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.1%
Home win
Sao Paulo FC SP
X
28.0%
Draw
W2
25.9%
Away win
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.1%
Both teams to score
Yes51.5%
Totals 2.5
Under53.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Goal distribution model
Sao Paulo FC SP × CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.9%
0:1
7.3%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.7%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
6.5%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.7%
2:1
9.2%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
4.6%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
1.7%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
1:010.7%
2:19.2%
0:08.9%
2:08.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
11th place · 36 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Cruzeiro 0:2
- 03.10.2026 home Santos 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Internacional 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Palmeiras 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:0
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
14th place · 34 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Botafogo RJ 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Coritiba 5:0
- 12.09.2026 away Gremio 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Fluminense 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 3:1
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–3 | 2–5–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.57 | 1.07 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sao Paulo FC SP wins2
Draws1
CR Vasco da Gama RJ wins3
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 18.04.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 02.11.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:2 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 13.06.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:3 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 17.10.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 3:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 23.06.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 4:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 07.10.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.23 → now 2.05 |
| W2 | was 3.20 → now 3.50 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.