Atletico Mineiro MG — Coritiba FC PR: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
63.3%
Home win
Atletico Mineiro MG
X
22.7%
Draw
W2
14.1%
Away win
Coritiba FC PR
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X85.9%
Both teams to score
Yes52.5%
Totals 2.5
Over56.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.1% / 65.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Goal distribution model
Atletico Mineiro MG × Coritiba FC PR
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.5%
0:1
3.4%
0:2
2.1%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.6%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
4.3%
1:3
1.3%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.1%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.4%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.6%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.9%
4:1
3.5%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.1%
1:110.8%
2:19.9%
1:09.6%
3:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
7th place · 44 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Athletico-PR 2:2
- 03.10.2026 home Bragantino 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Fluminense 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
Coritiba FC PR
9th place · 38 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Fluminense 0:4
- 20.09.2026 away Vasco 0:5
- 12.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:3
- 06.09.2026 home Mirassol 1:2
- 01.09.2026 away Remo 3:2
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Coritiba FC PR away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Coritiba FC PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 8–5–1 | 5–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.14 | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atletico Mineiro MG wins3
Draws1
Coritiba FC PR wins2
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 19.04.2026 Coritiba FC PR 2:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 08.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:2 Coritiba FC PR
- 20.05.2023 Coritiba FC PR 1:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 14.08.2022 Coritiba FC PR 0:1 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 24.04.2022 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:2 Coritiba FC PR
- 26.12.2020 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:0 Coritiba FC PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.45 → now 1.53 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 6.25 |
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