Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.8%
Home win
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
X
27.0%
Draw
W2
44.1%
Away win
Cruzeiro EC MG
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.0%
Both teams to score
Yes57.4%
Totals 2.5
Over53.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.9% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 71.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Goal distribution model
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS × Cruzeiro EC MG
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.1%
0:1
8.3%
0:2
7.5%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.5%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.3%
1:1
12.8%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
4.8%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.6%
2:1
7.2%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
1.9%
3:1
3.0%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.8%
1:29.2%
0:18.3%
0:27.5%
2:17.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
18th place · 30 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
- 16.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Vasco 1:2
- 08.09.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
Cruzeiro EC MG
5th place · 48 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Vitoria 3:1
- 13.09.2026 away Santos 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Vasco 1:3
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs Cruzeiro EC MG away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | Cruzeiro EC MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–4–3 | 6–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS wins1
Draws1
Cruzeiro EC MG wins4
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 19.04.2026 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 05.11.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 14.07.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 4:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 28.11.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 10.07.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0:2 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 27.08.2023 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 3:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 3.20 |
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