EC Bahia BA — CR Flamengo RJ: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
27.1%
Home win
EC Bahia BA
X
26.3%
Draw
W2
46.5%
Away win
CR Flamengo RJ
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.7%
Both teams to score
Yes61.0%
Totals 2.5
Over58.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.5% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 72.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
EC Bahia BA × CR Flamengo RJ
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.2%
0:1
7.1%
0:2
7.3%
0:3
4.2%
0:4
1.8%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
4.9%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
9.4%
1:3
5.5%
1:4
2.4%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
4.0%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
3.0%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
1:29.4%
0:27.3%
0:17.1%
2:17.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
EC Bahia BA
6th place · 46 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Palmeiras 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:2
- 15.09.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Bragantino 3:2
- 30.08.2026 home Internacional 3:2
CR Flamengo RJ
1st place · 61 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Remo 1:0
- 02.09.2026 home Mirassol 2:0
This season: EC Bahia BA at home vs CR Flamengo RJ away
| Metric | EC Bahia BA · at home | CR Flamengo RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 6–6–2 | 8–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.57 | 1.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
EC Bahia BA wins1
Draws0
CR Flamengo RJ wins5
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 19.04.2026 CR Flamengo RJ 2:0 EC Bahia BA
- 05.10.2025 EC Bahia BA 1:0 CR Flamengo RJ
- 11.05.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 1:0 EC Bahia BA
- 05.10.2024 EC Bahia BA 0:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 21.06.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 EC Bahia BA
- 30.09.2023 CR Flamengo RJ 1:0 EC Bahia BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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