CA Paranaense PR — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
30.9%
Home win
CA Paranaense PR
X
28.9%
Draw
W2
40.2%
Away win
SE Palmeiras SP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.1%
Both teams to score
Yes54.1%
Totals 2.5
Under51.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.8% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Goal distribution model
CA Paranaense PR × SE Palmeiras SP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.7%
0:1
9.0%
0:2
7.3%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
13.8%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
4.1%
1:4
1.4%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.4%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
3.0%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.8%
0:19.0%
0:08.7%
1:28.7%
1:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
CA Paranaense PR
4th place · 50 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Coritiba 3:3
- 06.09.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home Fluminense 3:3
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 60 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Bahia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
This season: CA Paranaense PR at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | CA Paranaense PR · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 9–5–1 | 7–6–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CA Paranaense PR wins1
Draws1
SE Palmeiras SP wins4
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 19.04.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 01.09.2024 CA Paranaense PR 0:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 12.05.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 0:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 05.11.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 02.07.2023 CA Paranaense PR 2:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 26.10.2022 CA Paranaense PR 1:3 SE Palmeiras SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.15 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.23 → now 2.35 |
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