Botafogo FR RJ — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
69.1%
Home win
Botafogo FR RJ
X
19.1%
Draw
W2
11.8%
Away win
Chapecoense SC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X88.2%
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
Totals 2.5
Over63.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 80.9% | |
| X2 | 30.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Goal distribution model
Botafogo FR RJ × Chapecoense SC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
2.5%
0:2
1.5%
0:3
0.5%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.0%
1:1
9.0%
1:2
3.7%
1:3
1.1%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.6%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
4.4%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
8.4%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.0%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.4%
5:1
2.1%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.6%
2:19.6%
1:19.0%
3:08.4%
1:08.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Botafogo FR RJ
13th place · 35 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Vasco 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Mirassol 0:2
- 16.09.2026 home Gremio 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 18 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Vitoria 0:4
- 19.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Internacional 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 30.08.2026 away Gremio 1:3
This season: Botafogo FR RJ at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Botafogo FR RJ · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 5–6–4 | 1–4–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 0.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.47 | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Botafogo FR RJ wins5
Draws1
Chapecoense SC wins0
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 18.04.2026 Chapecoense SC 1:4 Botafogo FR RJ
- 27.11.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 27.08.2019 Botafogo FR RJ 0:0 Chapecoense SC
- 15.11.2018 Chapecoense SC 0:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 26.07.2018 Botafogo FR RJ 1:0 Chapecoense SC
- 11.10.2017 Botafogo FR RJ 2:1 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.80 → now 4.50 |
| W2 | was 6.75 → now 7.00 |
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